Sobia Kafayat, Intern
Major power engagement in contemporary geopolitical conflicts/issues has traditionally fostered a global environment that led to power blocs. Middle and small countries are either persuaded or coerced to choose sides, as in the case of Afghanistan, Syria, Ukraine, Taiwan, and now Gaza etc. The middle powers, either sided with one or the other major powers and felt comfortable opting for the same side of the bloc in various conflicts. However, the Ukraine war and Israel’s indiscriminate revenge punishment of the Palestinian people in Gaza, have brought about a significant change in how the middle powers view these conflicts. The role of the middle powers that were once part of the global core e.g. India, Saudi Arabia, Turkiye, Iran, South Africa, and Pakistan, now enjoying a much stronger impact and playing a bigger role in international affairs, has grown. They are emboldened to make somewhat independent decisions as to which side to play on. The purpose of this insight is to view the significant role of middle powers within the ambit of major power competition.
John Mearsheimer defines major powers “as states that are acknowledged as having a large impact on international politics and that have considerable economic, military, and diplomatic strength.” This definition identifies the United States, Russia, and China as the main powers with the ability to affect world politics and global political order. There is no universal definition of middle powers, some scholars define middle powers as an “actor(s) possessing enough strength and authority to support themselves without external assistance.” Such states have significant military and economic might in comparison to their neighbors, as well as perpetual regional presences and geographic importance. In addition, a large group of countries in the southern hemisphere of the globe have benefitted from a globalized economy posted impressive development indicators, and have gained the ability to influence the balance of power in their regions. These countries are dissimilar in their political outlooks/systems, are spread over various continents (Asia, Africa, and Latin America), and have been termed as the Global South in international politics. Leading middle-power countries in the Global South include Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Brazil, India, Indonesia, and Turkey. They have avoided being aligned completely with any of the major powers and sought to pursue independent foreign policies that advance their national interest. The rise of middle powers in the Global South has thus increased their significance in international affairs. As members of various political and economic groups like the G20, G77, and BRICS, they possess vital resources that together give them greater clout.
In the contemporary global geopolitical environment, where the US and Russia are fighting a proxy war in the Ukraine, the US and China are jostling for global economic and political outreach and the US is likely to get more deeply engaged in the Middle East (from where it was beginning to disengage), the role of the middle powers has assumed greater significance.
Many experts believe that middle powers will be crucial in determining the direction of contemporary international politics. These middle powers are becoming active in both geopolitics and geo-economy. They all are part of regional organizations such as BRICS, SCO, G20, G77, etc. which foster the south-south cooperation. They collectively own critical minerals and resources that are important for major powers to sustain their status or order.
If one looks at the conflict theatres in the recent past, it is evident which major powers are on the opposing sides, be it the Afghanistan crisis, the Syrian war, the Iranian issue, the Ukraine war, or Israel’s war on the Gaza Strip. It is also obvious that not all the middle powers have extended their political support to the United States as they used to in the past. The US resolution in the UN Security Council on the Russian invasion of Ukraine reflected this reality. While Russia vetoed the UNSC resolution 2623, middle powers including India, Brazil, South Africa, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Pakistan, and others abstained. Most middle powers thus showed a nuanced strategy in the Ukraine war reflecting their aim to balance their interests with the expectations of large countries.
The UNSC adopted resolution 2712 to allow aid delivery to and evacuation from Gaza received a majority vote but was abstained by the US, the UK, and Russia. India, which had previously supported the Palestine issue, has taken a 180-degree turn in support of Israel as India seems to have aligned itself with the US and Israel keeping its strategic interests in mind. Turkiye was the first Muslim country to recognize Israel in 1949 and having billions of dollars of trade with Israel has been one of the strongest voices against Israel’s indiscriminate killing of women and children in Gaza. At the same time, Turkiye has not banned the passage of oil supply to Israel 40% of which passes through Turkey.
Major Powers may not, in the future, be able to depend on automatic support from middle powers as in the past. Countries that focus on their internal strengths, both political and economic, would enjoy the right to exercise the freedom to decide in favor of their national interests.